Monday, January 28, 2013

Brief and Direct: Immigration Policy

First in an unscheduled series of short commentaries on current events


Talk of "comprehensive immigration reform" bubbled to the surface last week. We've seen this coming for some time. Since long before the last election. In fact, as long ago as July, 2006. Then, today,

Rubio Pitching Bipartisan Comprehensive Immigration Reform

"A bipartisan group or [sic] Senators including Senator Marco Rubio are set to unveil a new comprehensive immigration reform package at a Monday afternoon press conference in Washington.
The sweeping overhaul of immigration laws would reportedly include a path to citizenship for the 11 million illegal immigrants in the country. The bipartisan deal also includes border security, non-citizen or “guest” workers and employer verification of immigration status....
According to the framework of the plan it will contain four basic legislative “pillars:” [starting with]
  1. Create a tough but fair path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants currently living in the United States that is contingent upon securing our borders and tracking whether legal immigrants have left the country when required...."
Without going into how much of the entire agenda is strictly political, I'll only point out that very little of it addresses what many of us agree is the problem: our porous border.

Although the first pillar depends upon "securing our borders," none of the remainder do, and even the first one describes a "fair path to citizenship," rather than a means to achieve legal residency. And now that the door has been opened to comprehensive immigration law reform, it's clear to me that the idea of "security first, legislation reform to follow," has been pretty much abandoned by our leadership, including Marco Rubio, for whom I otherwise have tremendous respect. This is a direct result of President Obama's re-election, and our failure to elect more conservatives to Congress.

I promised to be brief and direct, so I will. Whatever plan they come up with under the guise of "reform," the result will be the same as every other plan we've tried in the past--and border security isn't really on their list of necessities. If the border is left unsecured, the day will eventually come when conditions in Mexico will be so unattractive to its citizens that sneaking into the United States will again (if it has ever stopped) look like the least bad of their alternatives, and the tide of illegal immigration will resume. Ignore the nonsense being mouthed today by people like John McCain. Whatever bill is proposed, its primary beneficiaries will be politicians, not the American people.

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

The State of the Union message that will NOT be presented in January

Here are some answers to questions you may not have asked.

Mike DeVine recently commented on Redstate (about the gun-control debate) that "The real issue is whether the DC police charge [David] Gregory with the crime he committed on national TV [displaying a rifle magazine]. If not, its just another nail in in the coffin of what used to be the Rule of Law in America."  I couldn't agree more. The Rule of Law has become Rule by the President.

Conduct a thought experiment. 

Compare life today to that of 1000 or so years ago. In some ways, it isn't so different. We Americans have managed to cede back to our King many of those guarantees of freedom that were fought for, hard and at great cost, by our ancestors.  The "Rule of Law in America" is rapidly being observed only when convenient for the "Ruling Class." King Barack tries to rule by decree, and in some cases he is successful. His nobles, now called "Democrats," do his bidding, and he does what's necessary to keep them mollified and often happy. The opposition Republicans remain loyal, perhaps because they aren't mistreated as badly as they might be if they came right out against the King, and perhaps because it's been so long since they really had to fight against anything that they've forgotten how to do it.

Meanwhile, we peasants, aka "the country class," are distracted by shiny objects offered to us by the Nobility of the Alphabet Press--CBS, NBC, PBS, CNN, and ABC--with News Corporation presumed to be different, but not by much. They do so by parceling out titillating tidbits of trivia to give us "something" to get excited about, while still not giving us enough solid information to really understand the big picture. "Something" happened at Benghazi, but three months later we still aren't sure what, although we know it's bad or it's innocuous, depending on the channel. Same for "Fast and Furious." The same even for the Fiscal Cliff, Fiscal Crisis, whatever we want to call it.  Yes, it's important, but there isn't any substantive discussion about it--what it is, why it is, what it means for the future--anywhere in the news beyond Fox, partly because it really is complex and therefore requires a lot of detail to treat properly, but mostly because it's so much easier to treat it as a shiny object, the issue of the year-end, and devote time to what he-said and she-said about it.

Same for mass murders committed with guns, while serial murders committed by repeat offenders are ignored, apparently because continuous murders committed one-at-a-time just aren't as interesting to report as those where we can be shown dozens of grieving mourners for dozens of young and not-so-young victims, all gathered together in candlelight vigils attended by the pompous priests of the Ruling Class, who intone self-righteously about the sins of the killer (almost always already dead) and his obvious insanity, about the sins of society (almost always the ultimate villain) and how obsessed we are with our "gun culture," and who promise fatuously to "do something about this tragedy to make sure it doesn't happen again."  The King tells us that we must put politics aside and get something done (restrictions on Second Amendment rights), even though politics is the method we rightly use to come to reasoned agreement when issues are contentious.  His words sound like code for "Just do it my way and nobody will get hurt."  The press prattles on about the need for a conversation to come up with a solution to the threat of mass murder, but the only words they will abide by concern gun ownership restrictions and nothing else.  They don't want a conversation, they want a monologue, delivered by them.

Then it happens again, and when suggestions are made that might actually have positive results, if they don't include further restrictions on gun ownership and individual rights, those ideas are called "stupid," "foolish," and dozens of similar epithets, even when those same ideas had previously been promulgated by the King's nobles in moments of lucidity. But I digress. See how easy it is to get sidetracked by the shiny objects?

The King likes to deal in facts. Well, here are the facts:

The King and his government have too much power, and that fact is prima facie truth. That truth is proven by the fact that so many otherwise powerful people who know better are willing to kowtow to the King, because they KNOW he can destroy their good life if he puts his mind to do so.  For example, why else would gun manufacturers donate money to Dianne Feinstein's Senate campaign, or Ford Motor Company executives donate to the re-election of President Obama?  The downside of being on the wrong side terrifies them.  And they know he can also tilt the playing field to HELP them if he wants to.  That all testifies to a too-powerful government.

It's proven by the willing acceptance of bad policy at all levels of government by people who are receiving what they think are benefits from that government, willing acceptance that will eventually result in either the enslavement or impoverishment, or both, of their offspring by their indebtedness to the government or others, or by the destruction of the value of their currency by inflation, or by their slide into ignorance as a result of a sub-par education, particularly in history, delivered by that government through an "education" bureaucracy that's dedicated to serving itself and its work force rather than to actually educating our people.  Acceptance because it's too big to fight.

Our public education system has become a self-perpetuating bureaucracy, completely ill-suited for its stated goal of public education, but perfectly suited for indoctrination of masses of children into ways of "right-thinking." In fact, they are indirectly being taught magical thinking, that the government can fulfill all their needs with little help from themselves, and worse, that such an idea is good and desirable.

It's proven by the fact that there is no reasonable way that the promises of this government can be met with the resources it has available. Too much of the wealth of the country is being consumed by the government itself. To hide that fact, we are constantly distracted by the shiny object of "the 1% who don't pay their fair share." In fact, nobody knows what a "fair share" is, but by golly it doesn't apply to me, although it does to thee. These are symptoms of a government that's not only too powerful, but just plain too BIG. It's very bigness makes it unaffordable.

Less than half the population cannot support more than half the population in the style they would like to live, especially if those supporting the others are told they must do so with half their resources tied behind their backs and that the rest must eventually be given to the government.  It WAS possible at one time, but that was because the demands of the many were constrained by a palpable reality, and not hidden by a governmental veil across our eyes.

Especially the way the two halves are divided today.  Consider that in earlier, more prosperous years, less than half DID support more than half.  The supporting half was working fathers; less frequently it was working mothers.  An intact family made it possible for those fathers and mothers to support themselves, their spouses, and their children.  They also often provided partial support for their own parents, and sometimes they helped out extended family members and friends as well. There was a close relationship to those supported, and this enhanced the effectiveness of this unofficial "redistribution of wealth."  The incentive for the giving ones was to be as generous as possible because they were helping loved ones; the incentive for those receiving was to ask for the least possible, because they were imposing on loved ones.

Today, wealth is being redistributed via an official, governmental bureaucracy.  To a much greater degree than before, both the father and the mother (when both are present, which is much less frequent nowadays) work to support themselves and their family, which tends to be smaller, and they're still as generous as they can be.  But more and more of their income is being demanded by the government in taxes, reducing their ability to help people and causes they know, and the reason is given that their prosperity needs to be shared with others.  It was already being shared, but now it also is to be shared with strangers, chosen by the government to receive support from people they neither know nor care about.  The fewer are still supporting the more numerous, but they no longer know them personally.  Breadwinners are still supporting their own families and helping friends and neighbors as much as they can, but now they're also essentially facing demands for support from strangers across town and across the country, and those demands come first, as tax bills.

Incentives have been turned on their heads.  Taxpayers have every incentive to pay as little in taxes as possible, but welfare recipients have every incentive to take as much from government as possible.  And as the votes of the takers seem to be more powerful than the votes of the providers, the situation is one of being behind the power curve.  The forces within the system aren't in equilibrium, and they are pushing it in a worse direction rather than a better one.

Nothing can be done to fix this state of affairs. Nothing. At least, not until the majority of the voting public understands it, and that won't happen until the working press decides to step up to its Constitutional responsibility to report, fully and accurately, on the reality of life in the United States. That may not mean ignoring the shiny objects, but it would certainly mean reporting that they ARE shiny objects, distractions of a sort, and not often the most important things going on today. And it would also mean they would be reporting WHY those shiny objects are being shown to us--what they are hiding behind them, and what their full import is.

Our Constitutional protections are already almost gone, insofar as protections FROM the government are concerned, and those are the primary reasons the Constitution was written in the first place. Much is made at times of the importance of the Magna Carta, and it was important, of course, although it's nowhere near as important to our freedom as is the Constitution, but they share an important concept--the only way to control the power of a government is to place MORE power somewhere else. The Constitution places the power in a diverse group, the PEOPLE, with the expectation they'd be farsighted enough to keep the government at heel. That expectation seems lost, even though King Barack is displeased that the Constitution is one that consists primarily of "negative rights." He rightly sees that the power of the government is restrained by restrictions the Constitution imposes. He also knows that he can ignore those restrictions until something stops him. That would normally have been the last election, but we apparently chose to re-elect him, leaving us with only the two "co-equal" branches of government to stop him, or failing that, the states.

Seen that way, the House has a duty to prevent as much Kingly mischief as it possibly can. The Supreme Court can't be counted on to read and interpret the English language without bias.  The Senate is composed of vassals of the King, so the option of impeachment is not available. Beyond that, our House of Lords has given no indication it wants to do anything other than serve the King, rather than the people. If our House of Commons fails us, we have nowhere else to turn, and no one to blame but slightly over 50% of the voting population and those who chose to sit the last election out, and the so-called unbiased media for shirking its duty when called upon. That's part of our Constitutional crisis, because the press is the only private institution expressly protected by the Constitution from government interference.

King Barack is a different kind of President.

Whatever one wants to call King Barack, he is NOT a Democrat and he's certainly not a Republican. As Mark Belling noted the other day, President William J. Clinton may not have been a good man in some ways, but he did have one thing in common with the rest of us--his idea of a successful Presidency for himself was to leave a prosperous country behind when he exited the White House. He is proud that the budget was in surplus when he left office. He was happy to take full credit for entitlement changes made in conjunction with the Republican House, such as welfare reform.

Barack Obama seems oblivious to proven rules of economics that could be used to repair the country's finances and put us back on the road to prosperity. While calling for cooperation and compromise to address national problems, he can't bring himself to say "yes" to a Republican idea, even if it was first put forward by one of his Democrat colleagues. When he comes close to an agreement, he suddenly remembers additional demands that kill the impending deal. He's done so time and again (apparently including on 12/31/12). Furthermore, everything he says is intended to advance his personal agenda. He gives no credit to Republicans for good intentions and personal behavior. If he can cut down a Republican, he figures that elevates Democrats, and in the world of public relations, he's right.

It's clear that he has no interest in avoiding the "fiscal cliff" if it means giving up ANY of his demands. Although he claims that his top priority is to make sure that middle-class Americans don't receive a large tax hike because of it, his true top priority is obviously to make sure that at least the top two percent of American taxpayers DO receive one. In fact, it's clear from his ebullient demeanor in some appearances that things are progressing exactly as he wants them to. His return from vacation in Hawaii was 100% for show. He came back to speak, to pontificate, to posture, to preen. He didn't come back with any plan to show to John Boehner and say, "See, John, we CAN solve this problem without adding $6 trillion more to the national debt in the next four years, and here is how we'll do it." A President who was interested in finding a solution would have been working on this well-known problem for months, laying out his own blueprint for success, and consulting with Congress. Instead, he's done nothing and he came back purely for publicity reasons and to make sure nothing substantial was accomplished before year-end.

It's also clear that HIS criteria for a successful Presidency does not include consideration of the prosperity or stability of the country, nor of its people. His primary goal is indeed, as he said, to "fundamentally transform the United States of America." Whether he means well in that goal is almost irrelevant. The ways in which he is transforming America are antithetical to the principles of a country thought to be "of the people, by the people, and for the people," as they change it to a country controlled by the bureaucracy, paid for by the working people, and operated for the benefit of the governmental ruling class. In this goal, we should all be wishing he would fail.

This dichotomy of objectives explains as well just why he has been such a mystery to some of the chattering sub-class of workers called the press. If one doesn't understand that he has a fundamentally different set of goals and criteria for success than any of his predecessors, one is of course confused by his actions. Accept that his goals are different, and they become easy to understand. Why they're different isn't particularly important, except that "why" also explains how he has advanced so quickly from community organizer to President without actually possessing or accruing any of the skills necessary to be a truly good President.

There you have the facts. 

Call them opinions if you will, but there is evidence to support all of them. And the above also contains a plan for the salvation of our Republic. First, to remain a credible alternative to the Democrats, the House Republicans have to figure out a way to remain true to our values without allowing King Barack to drag the country into fiscal insanity.  He's an expert at presenting them with dilemmas.  "Raise taxes or go over the 'fiscal cliff,' because I'm not going to agree to anything less."  Both choices are bad, but they have to choose one.  When they do, they need to explain their choice, clearly and believably.

Second, Republicans and conservatives have to figure out a way to get their case to the public, a way that the public can understand and accept. We were right on all the issues during the last election, but the public wasn't convinced, partly because we didn't try to convince them, and partly because when we did try, they couldn't hear us. Public announcements on the steps of the Capitol won't cut it any more. They must figure out a way to get the so-called unbiased media to report it fairly, or at least completely. This seldom happens now. That message must also be consistent. No digressions; no personal stories; no opportunities for an innocent comment to be turned into a "war on women."

One tactical adjustment worth considering would require a change of priorities and/or more money:  new, topical political advertising needs to be rolled out all the time, not just before elections.  The Republican Party should this very day be broadcasting public statements explaining just what the heck they're doing about the "fiscal cliff," and why.  They must start countering the Democrats' misleading accusations that everything bad is the fault of Republicans while everything good comes from the Democrats.  They can't count on cable news interviews or the free press to get the job done.

Third, nominate articulate, competent, committed, passionate conservatives to run for office. They can make the conservative case a lot better than any old-line politician can, and better than Mitt Romney did, simply because they know it in their hearts AND they know the importance of making their case to people who are open to understanding it. Whenever possible, they should explain not only their position, but WHY their position is the right one, a much more convincing way to make a convert.

Fourth, Republicans must figure out some way to counteract the union manpower juggernaut, particularly the SEIU. The playing field is NOT level, and they have to make it level.

Fifth, and, at a more fundamental level, conservatives must acquire control of more of the so-called unbiased media. A first step in that direction is to quit supporting the liberal media in any way. That means cancel your subscriptions to the New York Times, the Washington Post, the New Yorker, etc., and quit donating to liberal causes like PBS and NPR. Subscribe to conservative magazines and newspapers. For publications and outlets that fall in between, let them know you pay attention to what they say and expect them to report the news COMPLETELY--that will take care of the "fair and balanced" part without anybody actually having to decide what is "fair" or what is "balanced."

A second step will be for the more affluent conservatives to become more involved in the media aspect of politics. Koch brothers--BUY MEDIA OUTLETS!  Mega-million dollar contributions aren't the most effective use of your donations.  In doing so, make sure your new toy is itself reporting the news COMPLETELY. A policy statement approved by a source considered unbiased by the public is far more likely to be accepted than one approved by what's considered a partisan source. Why do you think the left puts so much effort into demonizing, ridiculing, and marginalizing Fox News? They know that if they can convince the public that Fox is conservatively partisan, the public will discount what they see and hear there, even if a lot of the public DOES see and hear it.

Sixth, recognize that the game has changed. King Barack doesn't consider us his opponents who might win next time, he considers us enemies to be defeated permanently. We need the same outlook. Recognize that this has become an existential battle for the Republic.  If the next President is Hillary Clinton or Chris Van Holland, our children will face a bleak future, at least bleak compared to a future living in a free enterprise driven economy.  Otherwise, fascism is the precise term for where we're heading.

Finally, a suggestion to conservative writers of all kinds:

We need fewer books but more pamphlets.  We need fewer essays but more interviews in the so-called unbiased media of all kinds.  And (note to self), we need shorter essays rather than longer ones.  The people we're trying to reach don't believe they have time to read our books and find our blogs, but they do find time to watch the alphabet news and perhaps read a short pamphlet or internet page that covers just a single issue in the war against fascism.  We have to figure out a way to get our arguments into their minds, and shorter arguments make that easier.

Monday, December 31, 2012

OK, Democrats, You Got What You Wished For

What are you going to do with it?


Your man won. You even increased your lead in the Senate, although it seems we may have increased our own majority in the House. But that doesn't matter, because the fact is House Republicans can't get anything they really want past the Senate's majority or the President's veto.  The best they can do is to come to some kind of agreement with your Senate Democrats as to what we can do about the looming "fiscal cliff" and some other minor inconveniences that lie ahead. How can that agreement be reached?

In his losing campaign, Mitt Romney promised he would "repeal Obamacare," among other reasons because it took $700 billion in physician reimbursement funds out of Medicare to make Obamacare appear less expensive than it actually is. He said he would reduce tax rates across the board for everyone, in conjunction with reductions in deductions and exemptions, primarily for business, all in an effort to boost the economy without adding more debt. He also promised to bring the deficit under control, primarily through growth in the economy and reductions in Federal spending. One way to do that, he said, was to hold any spending request brought to him to this standard:  Is the project so necessary that it's worthy of borrowing money to pay for it? That sounded good to me, but it got lost in the kerfuffle about his example--Big Bird. Finally, he promised to attack the twin problems of Social Security and Medicare--both are underfunded and will run out of financial support under current law within a few years, several years fewer now than when George W. Bush requested they be reformed in 2005. And more, of course, but let's stop there.

We now know none of that is going to happen, at least not that way.

I don't believe President Obama promised to do any of those things, but perhaps that was simply because he thought it so obvious that it wasn't worth mentioning. We knew that he intends to raise income tax rates on the richest of us, sometimes meaning those with incomes over $200,000 annually and sometimes meaning something else, but always with the threat attached that if Republicans don't go along with whatever he decides, he will allow income tax rates on everybody to increase back to pre-Bush tax rates by vetoing any tax bill that does not raise tax rates on the "rich." According to USA Today, (11/14/12), that veto would take $214 billion out of the economy while "reducing the deficit" very little if at all. According to the paper, the total result of going over the cliff will be a 3.6% decline in GDP, amounting to a $560 billion smaller economy, which means the rate increases will NOT generate the tax revenue that is advertised, but less. And today he added a new note--he wants to approximately double the tax rate increase he had been proposing, which if passed would take an additional $40 billion from the economy. But that has been his general plan all along, and we all knew it.

Beyond that, he only said he wouldn't be a deceptive and "sketchy" conservative like Romney.

The ball is in your court

That is, the Democrats' court.  The Legislative and Executive Branch situations haven't changed all that much, numerically. Republicans can still filibuster in the Senate, although Democrats control the agenda there. Republicans control the agenda in the House, but can't get anything passed without buy-in from Democrats in the Senate, which seems impossible to achieve on major legislation. (I just heard Congressman Luiz Gutierrez {D. IL}, expounding on immigration reform. He couldn't even bring himself to say that Republicans who disagree with him but would work towards compromise legislation are anything better than desperate politicians "doing it for political purposes so that [their] party can have a future," as opposed to Gutierrez and others [Democrats] who simply want to make "America a better, more decent place to live...." This after he criticized Republicans for "beginning the conversation" in a way that closes the minds of Hispanic listeners. Not promising as a sign of future agreement and civility.) And the President can still veto anything that he doesn't like.

What has changed is that we've had an election, and regarding legislative cans that have been kicked down the road, we can say the chickens have come home to roost. The fiscal cliff will either be dealt with or we face a the second dip of a recession. The debt ceiling must be raised or spending cut to the bone (which do you think will happen?)

The election has given President Obama a mandate, but not one he relishes.  It's a mandate to lead. He must take the lead on all these issues, no matter how much he wants to simply continue to blame George W. Bush and the House Republicans while he does nothing. If he doesn't lead, even our compliant mainstream press won't be able to cover for him in the history books, although it might fool a lot of people about his performance for a while. His leadership is necessary to reach agreement between the two Houses of Congress.

He can't just turn things over to Reid, Pelosi, McConnell, and Boehner and expect to come in at the end and take credit for their progress, or demand changes to what they hammered out before him. That resulted last time in what is referred to as the fiscal cliff or "Taxmageddon" that awaits us in January.

So, what is he going to do? 

Here are some of the issues that need to be addressed:

National debt--Growing past $17 trillion at the rate of $1.5 trillion per year.

Annual deficit--$1.5 trillion each year for the past 5 years and next year. Where will the loans come from? There isn't enough money in the economy to reduce the deficit significantly by increased taxation.

Federal budget--We haven't had one passed by the Senate since the first year of the Obama Administration. Until we get one, continuing resolutions guarantee continuing deficits (see above).

Spending--What can be reduced or eliminated? What absolutely has to be increased?

Stock market--Has been falling steadily since election day, just as it did in 2008. Will there be a crash like the one that bottomed in March, 2009?

Federal regulations--Are they too heavy for business to thrive?

Military readiness--The military budget is scheduled to see huge cuts under Taxmageddon, cuts that the Secretary of Defense say will be devastating.

Social Security--Outgo exceeds income. Cannot survive without reform.

Medicare--see Social Security, only worse.

Obamacare--Contains many new taxes, pushes the economic envelope away from developing more medical doctors, facilities, procedures, and medicine, and many other problems you Democrats don't care about--yet.

Obamacare-- How will we pay for 16,000 new IRS agents to enforce it?

Obamacare--Businesses are already starting to cut back work hours and lay off workers, primarily to avoid situations that will be very expensive for them.

Obamacare--Is it OK to force the Catholic Church to pay for abortifacients and birth control measures in its employee health plans against its religious convictions? If it doesn't have to pay, why should anybody else have to?

Republican War on Women--Will the Senate hold hearings to find out what that means?

Fast and Furious--What, Who, When, and Why?

Benghazi--What, Who, When, and Why?

Illegal immigration--Border security is essential, immigration reform is needed.

Iran--What will he do to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons?

Muslim Brotherhood--How do we relate to them? In Egypt, are they our ally? In Libya, are they an insurgency?

Syria--Do we allow Assad to continue killing his people?

Afghanistan--Friend or foe?

Pakistan--Friend or foe?

Al Qaida--Is it really "on the run"?

Energy independence--The last Obama Administration closed oil fields, closed offshore rigs, gave money to Brazil to develop offshore oil to sell to us, rejected the Keystone pipeline, and wasted money on Obama contributors' "green" companies. What will this one do? They've already cut back on energy leases in Colorado.

Israel--Will we treat them as friend or foe?

China--Do we continue to feed jobs to them? Will they loan to us again? Will the yuan become the world's reserve currency under Obama's watch?

Taxes--Will the President really veto any tax bill that doesn't raise taxes on the "rich"? He says he will.

Taxes--He has said he wants to raise capital gains taxes for "fairness," even if it means less tax revenue. Does he know many non-rich retirees depend on the sale of securities to sustain their lives? Raising their taxes leaves them less to live on, reduces the life of their nest eggs.

Taxes--Every dollar of additional tax taken out of the economy is a dollar that can't be used to buy something in it.  Even if it is sent back to somebody else, some of it is skimmed off to pay the bureaucracy.

CIA--What???

California--Will the federal government support California if it asks us to pay its bills?

Federal government payrolls--Every dollar must be paid by non-government workers or be borrowed.

Government transparency--Where is it?

Guantanamo Bay Prison--When will it close? What will happen to the inmates?

Russia--What will Obama do with his new-found flexibility?

Hurricane Sandy/New York/New Jersey/Philadelphia/FEMA--Will Federal assistance ever arrive?

Queen Elizabeth--What to give her on her birthday....

What do you want him to do?

Seriously, most conservatives could tell you what they would have wanted Mitt Romney to do had he been elected. That's why we were Romney voters. What do you want your President to do about these issues and others? Or have you even thought about it? Comments are open for business.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

President Obama Has No Foreign Policy


How can he defend a nonexistent foreign policy?

President Obama has already been exposed as not even an empty suit, but an empty chair. It's time to expose his foreign policy attempts for what they are--empty words.

Almost any set of policies can have enough cohesion to generate a "three-legged stool" analogy. For the Reagan Administration the legs might have been (1) Strength through a military strong enough to be feared, (2) Diplomacy carried out by a State Department that understood where our priorities lay and what they needed to say to please our friends and discomfort our enemies, and (3) Outreach to the world in the form of sensible policies regarding human rights that were beneficent enough to allow the occasional Grenada invasion to go essentially without comment. Not that the Reagan administration would have put it that way, but that's just an example to show how it can be made up out of anything.

Obama's three-legged stool for foreign policy starts with an apology tour

If the Obama administration has a three-legged stool, its legs seem to be (1) Appeasement, and self-condemnation of America while projecting national weakness, (2) Inaction in the face of crisis, and (3) Refusal to face reality in a real world. I don't have to expand much on the first one--we've all seen the bowing to foreign potentates and heard the speeches accepting American blame for all the ills of the world, with shows of strength saved for overmatched attacks on individuals. Not just the killing of bin Laden, but the taking of the pirated ship. Two small victories in the face of a sea of defeats. We are losing our gains in Iraq. We have lost too many men to "green on blue" murder in Afghanistan. We invade Pakistan to get bin Laden, but we won't do anything about the terrorist cells there. We rely on our allies to clean up in Libya, and we do nothing in either Egypt or Syria. Not that we should do something, but Obama can't describe why we shouldn't, and it's clear that Obama doesn't want to lead anything, and that projects weakness.

Obama's Inaction

Obama's Inaction would be laughable if it weren't pathetic. Inaction is the only word to describe our reaction to the uprisings in Egypt, Libya, Syria, and earlier in Iran. Did his aide actually think he was coining a compliment when he said, "Obama leads from behind"? I have described this inaction as a policy of "Don't do anything and see what happens. Something always does. Then spin it to our political advantage." It's obvious that he follows that path, because he does the same thing in domestic policy, with his lack of leadership after the Deepwater Horizon disaster a prime example. That betrays two flaws in Obama's character: First, it shows a leader unwilling to take any chances at all, always opting to take the "safe" course of doing nothing. This may be a result of his lack of any leadership experience before sitting down in the Oval Office. Any CEO, heck, even any business school graduate, knows that you never have ALL the information you'd like to have and that doing nothing is in fact choosing a path that depends not on your own skill and resources, but on the winds of fate, putting you at the mercy of events. The second flaw revealed is that he is more interested in political advantage than he is in serving the country.

Refusal to face reality

The most serious of the three (if they can be graded--they are all exactly the wrong actions in foreign policy) is his inability (or refusal) to face reality. He has a belief that by changing the words we use we can change the reality they describe. No more "War on Terror;" it's now an "Overseas Contingency Operation." A soldier kills thirteen people on his post and it's called "workplace violence" rather than "treason" and "terrorism." Kill bin Laden and declare that al Qaeda is dead, and voila, it is! An attack on a consulate therefore can't be terrorism, it must be the result of righteously angered Muslims who have heard that somebody else has seen a video on the internet that slanders Mohammed and whose demonstration just gets out of hand and kills four Americans. Further ignoring reality, he thinks he can convince other people of the same story. Compounding the error, he spreads the story of the "video-caused attack" around the world, alerting other outraged Muslims to its existence and that the President of the United States, despite protestations to the contrary, seems to think it a reasonable excuse for demonstrations, if not for murder. He seemingly didn't realize that his words could be used against us.

The Arab Spring is an example of all three legs being exposed.  It's in the interest of the United States to have stability in the oil-producing countries of the Middle East and even in those that don't produce much oil.  We depend on that supply, no matter how many windmills the government subsidizes, so even if Mubarak treated many of his people badly, even if Khaddafi did the same and sheltered terrorists and was our enemy, even if Assad was willing to kill thousands of his own people, it was to our interests to either maintain stability in the area and to make sure the new regime was as "friendly" to us as the old one had been. But the policy of "do nothing and see what happens" doesn't provide for that consideration. The enemy of our "enemy" is not always our friend.

Our President substituted nice words for reality.  He declared that the winds of democracy were sweeping across the Middle East, blowing away the old dictators and replacing them with the will of the people, only that isn't what happened. The old dictators were removed in Egypt and Libya, only to be replaced by new dictators called the Muslim Brotherhood, and these dictators have no interest in stability for the sake of stable relationships and trade; they'd just as soon ALL their own people starved as to help the West in any way. Calling them "democratic popular uprisings" didn't actually make it true. These were no more democratic uprisings than was the rise of the National Socialist Party in pre-war Germany, and it is to ignore reality to claim otherwise.

Ignoring reality, he thinks that he can talk sternly to Mahmoud Achmadinijad and that such talk will convince a hell-bent-for-anihilation Iran to cease its nuclear arms program, the program for which they've been sacrificing their own comfort for years.  First, the phrase is "talk softly and carry a big stick," not "talk sternly and hope nobody notices you're unarmed." Second, even if we had the capacity to be an existential threat to Iran, they still would oppose us because they DO oppose us. As it is, they KNOW President Obama would never use military power on the scale it would need to be applied against Iran, so Obama's words are meaningless. The will to use strength has to be credible for even available strength to be effective.

We can see the same effect on Bashar Assad in Syria--none, and our weakness has led our old enemies of Russia and China to take the sides of Iran and Syria, because they have no fear of us either.

Taking all of this in, the picture emerges that the United States under Barack Obama doesn't have a viable foreign policy.

What's coming?

History teaches that a power vacuum will be filled. By weakening the United States, President Obama has begun to create a power vacuum. It was happening demographically anyway, simply because of the huge population advantage China has over us and its decision to abandon much of Communism, but just as the United Kingdom slipped behind us yet remained prosperous without becoming our enemy after our great 19th and 20th century expansion, there ARE ways to maintain our wealth, dignity, and standard of living without helping the process along by becoming weak intentionally. If we fail to develop our own energy resources, we will be at the mercy of our Middle Eastern trade "partners," and of Canada and Mexico. A reality-based foreign policy is a necessary "leg" for us to stand on. Energy policy is an important support for a successful foreign policy, and our energy policy is far from realistic.

Rules for Presidents

But now another character trait may be Obama's undoing, right before the final debate, which is fortuitously centered on foreign policy. That is his obeisance to Saul Alinsky. Nowhere in Rules for Radicals is there a rule that says, "Tell the truth." In his attempt to spin the recent Benghazi disaster to his advantage, either he or his handlers decided to push that "video-caused attack" story, and now reality is setting in.  Facts regarding what was known by whom and when are coming to light that can't be explained by anything other than "We were lying to hide the truth of our incompetence" or "We weren't really lying because we didn't know the truth but we wanted to be able to tell you a story anyway."

The coming debate

I'd like to hear Governor Romney question President Obama pointedly and directly about the logical contradictions in the stories of the last month.
"You should have known the facts by the next day--your underlings did.  Did you not know, or did you know but choose to not state the facts on purpose? If you didn't know, why didn't you?  Were the facts withheld from you? Why? To this day, you haven't used the words, 'Benghazi was a terrorist attack.' 
This disaster, and it WAS a foreign policy disaster, leaves us with a lot of questions. Why were the requests for more security denied? Who denied them? Did you not believe the danger was present? Why were we still in Benghazi? Even the British had left. Why did you continue to push that "video" story for two full weeks, long after you must have known the truth, long after you must have known there was NO demonstration outside the consulate before the attack? Or did you? Vice President Biden has claimed that your "intelligence was faulty," but Congressional testimony indicates that both "intelligence" and the State Department had it right from the beginning. The identification and capture of the perpetrators is important, but not as important as the answers to questions you have the knowledge to answer today."
Of course, he must be "respectful" to the President, who will attempt to blame the Republican budget.  And that will give Romney an opening to mention the fact that there IS NO BUDGET.

I'd also like to hear Romney say, "As soon as I name an Attorney General, I'll direct him to look into the mysterious process whereby the State of California decided to arrest a legal resident because he produced a movie expressing his political beliefs. I don't believe that it was a coincidence that his parole was revoked so conveniently in the middle of the night with full network news coverage. This seems to be a clear violation of the first amendment."

I'd like to hear him say, "My AG will be directed to find out the real reason that charges were dropped by the DOJ on a voter intimidation case in Pennsylvania after a guilty plea had already been entered."

I'd like to hear him say, "I will sign an executive order stating that those killed and injured at Fort Hood were victims of a terrorist attack. There is no reason that those wounded and surviving service members should not receive the same support that those wounded and killed on the battlefield receive. As a member of the military, the perpetrator may be open to charges beyond murder."

I'd like to hear him say, "I will issue a new Presidential Medal of Valor, equivalent to the 9/11 Heroes Medal of Valor awarded to New York Port Authority heroes, to each of the passengers and crew killed in that Pennsylvania crash on 9/11/2001.  Their heroism was equally valiant, and was performed as a gift to our country. Rather than sit back and accept fate, they boldly took charge, and averted further sure disaster in our nation's capital, giving their lives in the process."

And I'd like to hear him say, "In my administration, laws will be applied impartially. Speech will actually be free, and political correctness will not hold sway."

_______________
Update:
Although I sometimes think I can't go wrong by disagreeing with Bill Kristol, I thought he made a reasonable point this morning on Fox News Sunday: Romney should "...be Presidential.  He has to be less the challenger of the President, the prosecutor of the President's agenda, he has to be the next President of the United States.... Voters... want to see him as someone who is up to being President, with the judgement, the maturity, knowledge, a toughness but sort of soundness to be President. ...not a kind of guy who's arguing with the current President and challenging him and fact-checking him, ...if Romney can be Presidential tomorrow night, I think he's in pretty good shape...."

Chris Wallace: "How do you think he should play Libya?"

Kristol: "...he should stipulate that a terrible thing has happened which has been a real setback for us... the Obama administration hasn't handled it well ...more about what he would do over the next four years and less picking on every flaw of the Obama administration.... the key for tomorrow night is to be less of a prosecutor and more the next President."

I find myself agreeing with him, especially from the standpoint of avoiding driving up Obama's likability ratings and Romney's down. Romney does need a counter to Obama's foreign policy, even if Obama's is a void. Somehow, the Democrats are spreading a meme that Romney is a "warmonger," and Kristol suggested going back to Reagan vs. Carter: "Peace through strength.... Here is why my policies are less risky than the current Democratic President's." A statement like that would require a followup statement of what is different and why would it be less risky.

If Obama tries to claim that he is the man with foreign policy experience, Romney can point out our negotiating failures under Obama, or that his Secretary of State has done all the negotiating. He could even do it in French.


Cross-posted at RedState

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

What the (bleep) Is Romney Doing?


How can he be surging after ignoring our suggestions?

The human brain is a marvelous thing.  Each one is unique.  Some work better than others, but many of them see things the same way.  It's evolutionary.  We're programmed to look for patterns, and if a pattern is identified we all tend to see it.  But sometimes what is obvious isn't real.  And sometimes we need to stop and think about what pattern we should be looking for.

Expectations vs. performance

There is an accepted pattern for Presidential campaigns.  Use speeches and TV appearances to attack and counter-attack.  Send out mailings.  Make phone calls.  Knock on doors.  For incumbents, the opportunities are almost endless.  For their opponents, not so much, but we expect them to reply forcefully against whatever the incumbent says.  This wasn't happening for Mitt Romney in June, and mutterings abounded that he was wasting the summer.  In July and August the Olympics were held in London.  Romney dipped his toe in the water and was almost devoured by sharks.  His innocuous but accurate comment in answer to a question about Olympic security in London was spun by the British press into an insult against the British, and amplified by our own So-Called Unbiased Media. Lesson learned, Romney went back to a lower profile for a while.  And still, we who are experts on the ordinary insisted he was wasting time because he wasn't doing what WE would do.

When September 11 rolled around, with it came an attack on our Egyptian embassy and our "consulate" in Benghazi, Libya.  After the Egyptian attack but before the killings in Libya, Governor Romney issued a statement (originally intended to be held until midnight but released earlier), regarding the Egyptian embassy's "tweets" during the attack.  He was himself immediately attacked by the American So-Called-Unbiased-Media for having the temerity to have an opinion about statements published by an embassy.  It mattered not a bit that the White House issued a similar statement later the next day, saying essentially the same thing.  As they did so, they criticized Romney for "shooting before aiming" (an odd metaphor--his aim seemed clear).  But this time, his words were reported more fully, and they stayed in the news long enough to be judged on their own merits.

Debate forecasts and reality

It's now October and we've had two debates.  The first was forecast to be one of high importance to Romney.  Make or break, if he could just hold his own against the great orator he'd have a moral victory and he'd still be in the race. But to do so, he'd have to be hard-hitting, ruthlessly tearing into President Obama's failures and exploiting them for all to see.  He'd also have to provide details of all of his proposals from taxes to health care, and don't forget that RomneyCare would embarrass him.  Anything less and Obama would win simply by virtue of being the incumbent.  Obama was sure to hit him with the dreaded phrase, "47%," and Romney was reported to be memorizing "zingers" with which to come back when stung by Obama.

As it turned out, the pattern we expected to see didn't happen.  Romney was soft-spoken, matter-of-fact, and direct.  He explained his own plans and refuted Obama's attempts to misrepresent those plans as something else.  Romney appeared to be as likable as Obama, or more so.  Obama's vaunted oratory was replaced with a series of misstatements and missteps.  He couldn't explain his own ObamaCare program, although he liked the name.  "47%" never came up, and many of us wished that Romney would have taken some of the many opportunities to attack Obama on his record.  For instance, we would have liked a mention of the missing budgets for 2011, 2012, and 2013.  Still, viewers decided that Romney was the victor by a huge margin, for this sort of thing, and polls the following week confirmed that sentiment had swung towards Romney.

Enter the VP debate and Joe Biden vs. Paul Ryan.  It was introduced on Fox News with Bret Baier saying Biden's strategy would be to "drive a wedge in between Paul Ryan and Governor Romney... to set up his boss before the next debate."  Megyn Kelly stressed their almost-30-year age difference without telling us why that would be important.  As it turned out neither was important, and that strategic plan, as near as could be determined between sniffs, wasn't followed.  Earlier speculation was that the meeting would be confrontational, with wonky statistics being used by each to bash the other.  Biden would be sneaky and tricky, and Ryan would come right back at him, giving him references to class and race warfare in return for references to "47%."

In fact, wonkiness was held to a minimum by both men, at least to the extent possible given the questions.  Ryan seemed to be debating two opponents at times throughout the evening, with both moderator Martha Raddatz and VP Biden frequently interrupting an answer to dispute it, or to ask followup questions, or unrelated questions on another topic. Biden DID attack often, but Ryan's usual response was to ignore the tone and answer the substance.  Biden WAS obnoxious, but Ryan responded with detached amusement or not at all, and never with hostility or petulance.  Only once did he allow himself to suggest that the people would be better served if they "both" didn't interrupt each other, although it was clear the only interruptions came from Biden and moderator Raddatz.  And for the second week the nice guy finished in first place.  Not by the huge margin of the prior debate, but far enough in front for Wolf Blitzer of CNN to call it a tie.

So what the (bleep) is Romney doing?

The pattern we saw for weeks didn't match the one we expected and we interpreted it as mistakes on Romney's part.  Throw away that pattern and we saw what a man who is mostly a non-politician can do when he has the skill set of Mitt Romney. I may be thinking wishfully, but my thought is that Romney has been planning his moves from the early summer to maximize the utility of his campaign funds and to expose Obama without sounding strident himself.

While we were hoping to see a little of Thor's hammer used on Obama, Romney was instead setting the President up to look like Larry, Curley, or Moe in a way that his shortcomings would be apparent to independents. By maintaining that low profile, Romney let Obama get the headlines with his mismanagement of the economy, energy, the border, et al.  Since the So-Called-Unbiased-Media didn't care to cover Romney's  speeches, they were left to cover Obama's actions and inactions, which hurt the President more than anything Romney could have said.  Not what we wanted, but maybe more effective.

Why the change?

If ever a political party needed a turnaround, it was the Republican Party after Bush.  The ball got rolling with the Tea Party, a grass roots movement that was inspired by Obama's incompetent handling of the TARP and stimulus monies after they had been granted to him to "save the country."  It was completely independent of the Republican Party; in fact, it took way too long for Republican officials to realize they had been granted a chance at redemption, a chance to atone for too many years of "compassionate conservatism" and nominations of incompetent candidates like Bob Dole and John McCain.

We have now nominated a man who is a specialist in turnarounds.  It's his profession, and he's extremely good at it.  We expect him to be able to save the economy and save the country.  Isn't it just possible that he can run a successful campaign for President that doesn't fit the old pattern, and save the party while he's at it?

It makes sense to let him set the economy and the country aright again, but he knew that he couldn't campaign on that theme.  He recognized that it was in "personal likability" that Obama could beat him if he ran a traditional campaign.  So he first started his turnaround on the Party by abandoning the old pattern and nominating a young, smart Congressman who could help him with both likability and with issues and content.  He picked a man who might have upstaged him, but that didn't matter.  He was improving Party image and Ticket credibility.  Then he continued to campaign without confrontation but by gradually becoming more critical as he pointed out his differences with Barack Obama's failures.

Media look for old pattern

When it became debate time, the objectives were set by the media--for both, energize the base, and for Romney, show yourself capable.  The assumption was that he would do so by attacking Obama directly on his record.  Obama would use his oratorical skills to overwhelm the contender, generating a groundswell of Democrat base support.

But Romney recognized a couple of things that seem to have escaped the media and us as well.  First, the best way for him to energize the base would ultimately be not by attacking the President, it would be by winning the debate.  Second, the best way to win the debate would be to win over independents, and that would also not result from attacks on the President.  So while Obama was playing to his base, Romney was addressing his remarks and demeanor toward independents, who were after all the voters he needed to win over.  If he got them, any waverers in his base would come with them.  He calculated that they'd be more impressed by logic and ideas than by bluster and gotcha.

The Vice Presidential debate continued the theme, except Joe Biden went off the chart with "confidence" that came through as rude, arrogant, and obnoxious.  The Romney-Ryan ticket couldn't have been better served if they had scripted it themselves.

Different targets

Understanding your audience is important to any public speaker.  The Obama campaign decided its target audience was the Democrat base.  That's the way they conducted themselves.  OTOH, the Romney campaign targeted the independents and undecideds, and they did it two ways.  First, they treated the debates as if they were opportunities for serious discussions rather than circus sideshows set up for flexing muscles.  Second, they behaved as mature adults should behave in polite company.

Perhaps they also recognized that their target audience was comprised of people who might not be particularly knowledgeable about the details of the issues they talked about, or even about the existence of those issues, so they tried to provide some context for their arguments rather than simply spout sound bites, while they also introduced themselves for the first time to people who didn't know them.

The Democrats changed targets on the day after the Presidential debate.  We have wondered why the Obama camp appeared the next day with myriad examples of how Romney "lied" during the debate, even though the President didn't seem to notice in real time, and the "lies" were rather questionable. We wondered how these claims could be effective, since they seemed be either inaccurate or based on imaginary statements or proposals.  The answer, I believe, is smart politics on the Democrats' part:  those questionable statements were aimed directly at undecided voters who didn't watch the debate and were therefore wide open to persuasion.  Convince them that Romney lied, cheated, and/or stole and they would not bother to check further.  It's a tactic that can work, and it's aimed at precisely the right demographic--undecided, uninformed voters.

Fortunately for Romney/Ryan, the original target was re-acquired by the Democrats just in time for the Vice Presidential debate.  Biden played to his base, while Ryan played to civility.  For a President who has lectured us all so many times on the need for "civility," he abandoned his interest in it for the first two debates. To some extent, both campaigns hit their targets; the question remains, which target was most productive?

Will the next debate be different?

Will tactics change for the Tuesday, October 16, debate? My guess is that they won't change much.  Perhaps President Obama will choose to highlight some of his policy measures he considers to be successes, and tell us why he thinks so.  If he does, Governor Romney may be more specific in his rebuttals.  If Obama becomes more "aggressive," Romney may be a bit sharper in his replies.  Overall, I believe Obama MUST do whatever he can to maintain his "likability" lead if he still has one.  Behavior like VP Biden exhibited will be a big mistake, even if the devoted left-wing would love to see it.  Acquiescence bordering on somnolence won't do either.  His best bet may be to continue to misrepresent Romney's positions and fight on those grounds rather than to try to defend his own record, just as he did before.  And Romney may simply try to remain calm, cool, and collected, with ready answers and honest criticism for everything but put-downs for nobody.  That gave him a huge bump before and there is little reason to think it won't do so again.

What's important?

In the end, what is said will be forgotten unless it is catastrophically wrong. How it is said, though, is what makes the impression, and it's what drove poll numbers following the debates in the Republicans' direction.

Cross-posted at Redstate.com